Yes, that’s pretty amusing. On the other hand, remember that the further in the future a contract is, the more mispriced you can expect it to be—Intrade does not pay interest or otherwise compensate you for opportunity cost. (I believe this was covered in one of the footnotes.)
Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011: 11% chance
Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012: 15% chance
Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013: 5% chance
This was found here at 07:45, 10/18/2011.
Yes, that’s pretty amusing. On the other hand, remember that the further in the future a contract is, the more mispriced you can expect it to be—Intrade does not pay interest or otherwise compensate you for opportunity cost. (I believe this was covered in one of the footnotes.)