1514 public predictions? Gwern, you don’t just have more courage than I have. You have orders of magnitude more courage than I have.
I’m actually up to 1889 as of tonight.
I’m a lot more comfortable doing it because now I have evidence I’m actually pretty decent at it. (For example, on Good Judgement Project, I finished the year 50 out of the 206 in my specific group, despite typoing at least 1 entry.)
1514 public predictions? Gwern, you don’t just have more courage than I have. You have orders of magnitude more courage than I have.
I’m actually up to 1889 as of tonight.
I’m a lot more comfortable doing it because now I have evidence I’m actually pretty decent at it. (For example, on Good Judgement Project, I finished the year 50 out of the 206 in my specific group, despite typoing at least 1 entry.)