One way is how far out people can predict before their predictions get as noisy as chance. One of the surprising findings of the GJP was that even the best forecasters decayed to chance around the one year mark (IIRC?). Normal people can’t even predict what has already happened ( they object to/can’t coherently update on basic facts about the present).
One way is how far out people can predict before their predictions get as noisy as chance. One of the surprising findings of the GJP was that even the best forecasters decayed to chance around the one year mark (IIRC?). Normal people can’t even predict what has already happened ( they object to/can’t coherently update on basic facts about the present).