Although note that in that case, although Will did find a coherent way of getting that sort of probability, if anything it underscores that Thomas’s essential point there was correct: My probability estimate in that context was at best weird and more likely just poorly thought out, probably because of overcorrecting my overconfidence.
Although note that in that case, although Will did find a coherent way of getting that sort of probability, if anything it underscores that Thomas’s essential point there was correct: My probability estimate in that context was at best weird and more likely just poorly thought out, probably because of overcorrecting my overconfidence.