In the happy dance problem, when the agent is considering doing a happy dance, the agent should have already updated on M. This is more like timeless decision theory than updateless decision theory.
I agree that this gets around the problem, but to me the happy dance problem is still suggestive—it looks like the material conditional is the wrong representation of the thing we want to condition on.
Also—if the agent has already updated on observations, then updating on obs→act is just the same as updating on act. So this difference only matters in the updateless case, where it seems to cause us trouble.
I agree that this gets around the problem, but to me the happy dance problem is still suggestive—it looks like the material conditional is the wrong representation of the thing we want to condition on.
Also—if the agent has already updated on observations, then updating on obs→act is just the same as updating on act. So this difference only matters in the updateless case, where it seems to cause us trouble.