I don’t have much in the way of a model of “manipulative predictions”—they’ve been mentioned before as a motivation for counterfactual oracles.
I think the original example was, there’s this one oracle that everyone has access to and believes, and it says “company X’s stock is gonna go way done by the end of today” and because everyone believes it, it happens.
In a similar fashion, I can imagine multiple people/groups trying to independently create (their own) “oracles” for predicting the (stock) market.
I vaguely agree with this concern but would like a clearer understanding of it. Can you think of a specific example of how this problem can happen?
I don’t have much in the way of a model of “manipulative predictions”—they’ve been mentioned before as a motivation for counterfactual oracles.
I think the original example was, there’s this one oracle that everyone has access to and believes, and it says “company X’s stock is gonna go way done by the end of today” and because everyone believes it, it happens.
In a similar fashion, I can imagine multiple people/groups trying to independently create (their own) “oracles” for predicting the (stock) market.