This is total misinformation; mail-in rejection will probably be cancelled out by increased turnout from low-propensity voters (it’s much easier to vote by mail than to vote in person). In any case, the effect of a 1-3% rejection rate is minimal and indistinguishable from general noise/uncertainty.
Most of the claimed “GOP voter suppresion” either has a minimal effect or hurts the GOP, because the nuts and bolts of election administration are implemented on a county level. In most states, urban counties have the resources and inclination to counter the voter suppression, while rural (predominantly GOP) counties do not.
I was merely noting that 538, the makers of the prediction model that the post is discussing, believes in the voter suppression. If you think they’re wrong about the voter suppression, then you probably also shouldn’t believe in their prediction model. On the other hand, if you think they’re right about the prediction model, then why are you doubting their voter suppression research?
Of course, it’s perfectly consistent to think that they are wrong about both the model and the voter suppression, but the post was assuming that you believed in the prediction model.
This is total misinformation; mail-in rejection will probably be cancelled out by increased turnout from low-propensity voters (it’s much easier to vote by mail than to vote in person). In any case, the effect of a 1-3% rejection rate is minimal and indistinguishable from general noise/uncertainty.
Most of the claimed “GOP voter suppresion” either has a minimal effect or hurts the GOP, because the nuts and bolts of election administration are implemented on a county level. In most states, urban counties have the resources and inclination to counter the voter suppression, while rural (predominantly GOP) counties do not.
I was merely noting that 538, the makers of the prediction model that the post is discussing, believes in the voter suppression. If you think they’re wrong about the voter suppression, then you probably also shouldn’t believe in their prediction model. On the other hand, if you think they’re right about the prediction model, then why are you doubting their voter suppression research?
Of course, it’s perfectly consistent to think that they are wrong about both the model and the voter suppression, but the post was assuming that you believed in the prediction model.