Here are the results we currently have put into 538′s interactive map. I’ve been strictly kind to Trump, meaning I’ve put him as winning some races that aren’t yet called, while only giving Biden races that have been called.
538 thinks this comes out at ~86/7/7 Biden/Trump/Tie (these are simulations and the numbers seem to fluctuate). And I believe Nebraska’s second district is also won by Biden (I’m confused about that one, can’t find an official source), in which case all the ties to go Biden.
I’m not convinced this looks bad for Nate Silver. We seem to be in the pessimistic half of the distribution (from Biden’s pov), but not that far. It’s too early to be sure, but there seems to have been a massive polling error in Florida, and some smaller errors in other swing states in Trump’s favor. Again, that’s worse for Biden than the median outcome, but not crazy worse.
Here are the results we currently have put into 538′s interactive map. I’ve been strictly kind to Trump, meaning I’ve put him as winning some races that aren’t yet called, while only giving Biden races that have been called.
538 thinks this comes out at ~86/7/7 Biden/Trump/Tie (these are simulations and the numbers seem to fluctuate). And I believe Nebraska’s second district is also won by Biden (I’m confused about that one, can’t find an official source), in which case all the ties to go Biden.
I’m not convinced this looks bad for Nate Silver. We seem to be in the pessimistic half of the distribution (from Biden’s pov), but not that far. It’s too early to be sure, but there seems to have been a massive polling error in Florida, and some smaller errors in other swing states in Trump’s favor. Again, that’s worse for Biden than the median outcome, but not crazy worse.