I mean yes, clearly if you believe the Economist and 538 models are reasonable, then the TX bet isn’t +EV. My point is that the models are clearly unreasonable for the reasons listed above, and the bet is actually extremely +EV.
There are three arguments (1) polls underestimating Dems in Southern states, and (2) benchmarking against 2018 senate, and (3) some low-quality Tweets.
It’s weird to hold a lot of stock in (2), given noise from candidate selection and other variables.
If you place a lot of weight on (1), the actually sane bet would be Biden in AZ. It’s rated 2nd and 4th most likely to go dem by Cohn and Wasserman respectively.
Biden for AZ: 77% likely (Economist), priced at 54% on Election Betting Odds.
The Texas bet (TX) seems EV neutral to me, and clearly far worse than the nationwide electoral college (EC) bet.
Biden for EC: 95% likely (The Economist model), priced at 62%
Biden for TX: 26% likely (The Economist), priced at 29%
The two Twitter feeds are full of a lot of shitposting, and don’t update me much.
I mean yes, clearly if you believe the Economist and 538 models are reasonable, then the TX bet isn’t +EV. My point is that the models are clearly unreasonable for the reasons listed above, and the bet is actually extremely +EV.
There are three arguments (1) polls underestimating Dems in Southern states, and (2) benchmarking against 2018 senate, and (3) some low-quality Tweets.
It’s weird to hold a lot of stock in (2), given noise from candidate selection and other variables.
If you place a lot of weight on (1), the actually sane bet would be Biden in AZ. It’s rated 2nd and 4th most likely to go dem by Cohn and Wasserman respectively.
Biden for AZ: 77% likely (Economist), priced at 54% on Election Betting Odds.