I went the crypto route a bit, but then decided to funnel it through an acquaintance and use predictit instead.
If I understand everything correctly and calculated all the fees properly (probably haven’t), then the overall deal from the point where money leaves my paypal to the point where hopefully more comes back, is analogous to betting on Biden as if he had a 73,6% on the markets. Which I guess is still pretty good, but man do I wish that there was just one large market with minimal fees, instead of fees on transferring, currency conversion, profit on predictit, and withdrawal from predictit. So many fees :x
Also, it takes a few more days. I hope the markets don’t shift in Biden’s favor in the meantime (then the deal obviously gets worse). It’s amusing how I now want them to move into the opposite direction.
And all that is assuming a 0% risk that the person just screws me over and keeps the money for themselves, which is probably roughly accurate.
I went the crypto route a bit, but then decided to funnel it through an acquaintance and use predictit instead.
If I understand everything correctly and calculated all the fees properly (probably haven’t), then the overall deal from the point where money leaves my paypal to the point where hopefully more comes back, is analogous to betting on Biden as if he had a 73,6% on the markets. Which I guess is still pretty good, but man do I wish that there was just one large market with minimal fees, instead of fees on transferring, currency conversion, profit on predictit, and withdrawal from predictit. So many fees :x
Also, it takes a few more days. I hope the markets don’t shift in Biden’s favor in the meantime (then the deal obviously gets worse). It’s amusing how I now want them to move into the opposite direction.
And all that is assuming a 0% risk that the person just screws me over and keeps the money for themselves, which is probably roughly accurate.
Such a market exists, though unfortunately it is restricted to countries where most LW users are not citizens of.