Andrew Gelman, super legit (imo) statistician who built The Economist’s model, criticizes 538′s model for getting correlations wrong:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/10/24/reverse-engineering-the-problematic-tail-behavior-of-the-fivethirtyeight-presidential-election-forecast/
https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/jh9bmu/andrew_gelman_reverseengineering_the_problematic/
The Economist’s predictions are even more favourable to Biden, though:
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
Older discussion of the Economist’s model and betting markets by Gelman:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/06/19/forecast-betting-odds/
Andrew Gelman, super legit (imo) statistician who built The Economist’s model, criticizes 538′s model for getting correlations wrong:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/10/24/reverse-engineering-the-problematic-tail-behavior-of-the-fivethirtyeight-presidential-election-forecast/
https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/jh9bmu/andrew_gelman_reverseengineering_the_problematic/
The Economist’s predictions are even more favourable to Biden, though:
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
Older discussion of the Economist’s model and betting markets by Gelman:
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/06/19/forecast-betting-odds/