Do you have an estimate of expected profit per $100 bet (for a few of the most plausible scenarios)?
My impression is that PredictIt is +EV is you make lots of not-too-correlated bets so that your losses can offset your wins (though maybe not by enough to be worth the time & effort), but it’s generally -EV (or at best barely +EV) if you deposit to make a one-off bet where you have to pay fees & taxes on your winnings (and don’t get any tax benefit from your losses).
I would say Biden is conservatively 80% to win from here. Polls are incredibly good. The election is in sixteen days. When I made the thread you could get Biden for 0.65.
You need to pay 3.5 cents tax on winnings if you buy at 0.65. There is also a 5% withdrawal tax. So if you win you get (100/0.65)(0.965)(0.95)(0.8) = 112.8 . 12.8% returns in 16 days is nothing to laugh at. You are still getting almost 6% expected returns if you think Biden is only 75% to win. This all assumes you immediately withdraw your winnings from Predictit which is obviously bad for your expected value.
If you are not in the US you can both get better odds than 0.65 and you don’t have to pay the insane rake.
Yes. I was clear in the OP Predictit is a worse deal depending on your tax situation. If you cannot deduct losses things look much worse. But many people either have low incomes or already deduct.
Betting on international sites should be profitable regardless of tax status since the returns are much better.
Do you have an estimate of expected profit per $100 bet (for a few of the most plausible scenarios)?
My impression is that PredictIt is +EV is you make lots of not-too-correlated bets so that your losses can offset your wins (though maybe not by enough to be worth the time & effort), but it’s generally -EV (or at best barely +EV) if you deposit to make a one-off bet where you have to pay fees & taxes on your winnings (and don’t get any tax benefit from your losses).
Related: Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study)
I would say Biden is conservatively 80% to win from here. Polls are incredibly good. The election is in sixteen days. When I made the thread you could get Biden for 0.65.
You need to pay 3.5 cents tax on winnings if you buy at 0.65. There is also a 5% withdrawal tax. So if you win you get (100/0.65)(0.965)(0.95)(0.8) = 112.8 . 12.8% returns in 16 days is nothing to laugh at. You are still getting almost 6% expected returns if you think Biden is only 75% to win. This all assumes you immediately withdraw your winnings from Predictit which is obviously bad for your expected value.
If you are not in the US you can both get better odds than 0.65 and you don’t have to pay the insane rake.
It looks like this includes the fees you pay to PredictIt, but not the taxes you pay to the government.
Yes. I was clear in the OP Predictit is a worse deal depending on your tax situation. If you cannot deduct losses things look much worse. But many people either have low incomes or already deduct.
Betting on international sites should be profitable regardless of tax status since the returns are much better.