The 538 distribution currently has Biden falling between… <squints> ~255 − 440 electoral votes 80% of the time (47% − 82%). Updating your guesstimate sheet with those ranges give a mean proportion to Trump of .38 with a range of .17 − 0.54
The 538 distribution currently has Biden falling between… <squints> ~255 − 440 electoral votes 80% of the time (47% − 82%). Updating your guesstimate sheet with those ranges give a mean proportion to Trump of .38 with a range of .17 − 0.54