“It is impossible to say whether 2 million distracted pedestrians are really injured each year. But I think it is safe to say that the numbers we have are much lower than what is really happening,” Nasar said.
More importantly, I’m disputing that it makes sense to judge by the numbers today.
More importantly, I’m disputing that it makes sense to judge by the numbers today.
It certainly isn’t a perfect measure—but it seems like a decent one. I’d suggest correcting for some measure of how common the technology is. If there was something that only 10% of people have, but those 10% are getting killed at the same fraction per year as automobile drivers, I’d think it is still notable, though it wouldn’t precisely meet gwern’s criteria. If there were a technology which much less than 10% of the population has, then I’d be skeptical that it was unrestricted, at least in practice.
Frankly, there aren’t very many technologies added over that period (besides the various flavors of electronic computation/communications/entertainment) that have that been so widely available. Microwave ovens—and I don’t see many accidents from them. Perhaps home power tools? Forbes cites 37,000 emergency room visits per year from power nailers. They count another 37,000 from riding lawnmowers, but less than 100 killed.
More importantly, I’m disputing that it makes sense to judge by the numbers today.
It certainly isn’t a perfect measure—but it seems like a decent one. I’d suggest correcting for some measure of how common the technology is. If there was something that only 10% of people have, but those 10% are getting killed at the same fraction per year as automobile drivers, I’d think it is still notable, though it wouldn’t precisely meet gwern’s criteria. If there were a technology which much less than 10% of the population has, then I’d be skeptical that it was unrestricted, at least in practice.
Frankly, there aren’t very many technologies added over that period (besides the various flavors of electronic computation/communications/entertainment) that have that been so widely available. Microwave ovens—and I don’t see many accidents from them. Perhaps home power tools? Forbes cites 37,000 emergency room visits per year from power nailers. They count another 37,000 from riding lawnmowers, but less than 100 killed.