I recognize the idea of the quote, but am wondering how true it really is, and why this would be so. If the pill counterfactual seems easier than the weather counterfactual, is this due to something fundamentally important about complexity or is it just an illusion?
I ask this because when I try to think about the details of each scenario, the pill example ceases to seem comparatively simple. Asking questions like “how does pill A get to pill B’s location?” presents to me as many difficulties as asking “how did that heat get to that location”? So maybe the difference lies in the fact that we tend to not look at details when evaluating counterfactuals relevant to human decisions?
I think it does have to do with both complexity and recognition of complexity—I suspect that the book goes into much more detail, but it’s expensive, so I don’t have it.
I recognize the idea of the quote, but am wondering how true it really is, and why this would be so. If the pill counterfactual seems easier than the weather counterfactual, is this due to something fundamentally important about complexity or is it just an illusion?
I ask this because when I try to think about the details of each scenario, the pill example ceases to seem comparatively simple. Asking questions like “how does pill A get to pill B’s location?” presents to me as many difficulties as asking “how did that heat get to that location”? So maybe the difference lies in the fact that we tend to not look at details when evaluating counterfactuals relevant to human decisions?
I think it does have to do with both complexity and recognition of complexity—I suspect that the book goes into much more detail, but it’s expensive, so I don’t have it.