Relevant evidence: survey about the impact of COVID on biorisk. I found the qualitative discussion far more useful than the summary table. I think overall the experts are a bit more pessimistic than would be predicted by my model, which is some evidence against my position (though I also think they are more optimistic than would be predicted by Buck’s model). Note I’m primarily looking at what they said about natural biorisks, because I see COVID as a warning shot for natural pandemics but not necessarily deliberate ones.
(Similarly, on my model, warning shots of outer alignment failures don’t help very much to guard against inner alignment failures.)
Relevant evidence: survey about the impact of COVID on biorisk. I found the qualitative discussion far more useful than the summary table. I think overall the experts are a bit more pessimistic than would be predicted by my model, which is some evidence against my position (though I also think they are more optimistic than would be predicted by Buck’s model). Note I’m primarily looking at what they said about natural biorisks, because I see COVID as a warning shot for natural pandemics but not necessarily deliberate ones.
(Similarly, on my model, warning shots of outer alignment failures don’t help very much to guard against inner alignment failures.)