Hm, interesting. This suggests that, if we’re in a simulation, nuclear war is relatively more likely. However, all such simulations are likely to be shortlived, so if we’re in a simulation, we shouldn’t care about preventing nuclear war for longtermist reasons (only for short-termist ones). And if we think we’re sufficiently likely to be outside a simulation to make longterm concerns dominate short-termist ones (obligatory reference), then we should just condition on not being in a simulation, and then I think this point doesn’t matter.
Hm, interesting. This suggests that, if we’re in a simulation, nuclear war is relatively more likely. However, all such simulations are likely to be shortlived, so if we’re in a simulation, we shouldn’t care about preventing nuclear war for longtermist reasons (only for short-termist ones). And if we think we’re sufficiently likely to be outside a simulation to make longterm concerns dominate short-termist ones (obligatory reference), then we should just condition on not being in a simulation, and then I think this point doesn’t matter.