valuable things are, pretty much by definition, things that someone values enough to pay you to do
Perhaps, but only in an extended sense of the word. What if many people are willing to pay you a lot, but those people don’t [yet] exist? Much important number theory that underlies cryptography (and hence our modern economic institutions) was originally developed by mathematicians at a time when nobody valued that particular product very much.
Likewise, how much are people willing to pay for FAI right now? After the advent of FAI, how much will they say we should have valued those efforts? Equally, right before Clippy destroys humanity, how much will the world’s inhabitants regret not having funded work to prevent that particular event?
What if many people are willing to pay you a lot, but those people don’t exist?
I’m a little confused by this—I’m not sure what to make of the word ‘many’ when applied to non-existent people. Do you mean potential future people?
Much important number theory that underlies cryptography (and hence our modern economic institutions) was originally developed by mathematicians at a time when nobody valued that particular product very much.
Nonetheless, it was developed, so somebody valued it enough. There may of course be things which were never developed due to lack of funding which would be very valuable today but equally there are many things into which lots of funding has been sunk to no useful end. If we could reliably tell these apart in advance we would no doubt make significantly faster progress.
What if many people are willing to pay you a lot, but those people don’t exist?
I’m a little confused by this—I’m not sure what to make of the word ‘many’ when applied to non-existent people. Do you mean potential future people?
Yes, I meant “do not exist yet”.
If we could reliably tell these apart in advance we would no doubt make significantly faster progress.
We have heuristics, and they help. We now know that funding basic research that investigates the nature of the world, but doesn’t provide any tangible benefit is worthwhile in the average case. I believe that one of the many factors in the acceleration of increases in technological development is this principle, and as fundamental science funding has increased, we have after-the-fact discovered many important things we ended up needing to know, with much less lag time than decades or centuries ago.
I certainly can’t attribute all that to funding research that has no immediate application, but that heuristic has increased our rate of advancement.
Perhaps, but only in an extended sense of the word. What if many people are willing to pay you a lot, but those people don’t [yet] exist? Much important number theory that underlies cryptography (and hence our modern economic institutions) was originally developed by mathematicians at a time when nobody valued that particular product very much.
Likewise, how much are people willing to pay for FAI right now? After the advent of FAI, how much will they say we should have valued those efforts? Equally, right before Clippy destroys humanity, how much will the world’s inhabitants regret not having funded work to prevent that particular event?
EDIT: fixed typos and added a clarifying yet
I’m a little confused by this—I’m not sure what to make of the word ‘many’ when applied to non-existent people. Do you mean potential future people?
Nonetheless, it was developed, so somebody valued it enough. There may of course be things which were never developed due to lack of funding which would be very valuable today but equally there are many things into which lots of funding has been sunk to no useful end. If we could reliably tell these apart in advance we would no doubt make significantly faster progress.
Yes, I meant “do not exist yet”.
We have heuristics, and they help. We now know that funding basic research that investigates the nature of the world, but doesn’t provide any tangible benefit is worthwhile in the average case. I believe that one of the many factors in the acceleration of increases in technological development is this principle, and as fundamental science funding has increased, we have after-the-fact discovered many important things we ended up needing to know, with much less lag time than decades or centuries ago.
I certainly can’t attribute all that to funding research that has no immediate application, but that heuristic has increased our rate of advancement.