From the scientific paper I mentioned in the first comment they used different questions, here is an example:
“The questionnaires asked for interval estimates of birth years for five famous characters from world history (Mohammed, Newton, Mozart, Napoleon, and Einstein), and the years of death for five other famous persons (Nero, Copernicus, Galileo, Shakespeare, and Lincoln).”
I tested to answer these questions myself with 90% confidence intervals, and my result was that I was correct 7⁄10 questions, so seems like I still am overconfident in my answers even though I just read about it. But to be fair, 10 questions are far from statistical significance.
From the scientific paper I mentioned in the first comment they used different questions, here is an example:
“The questionnaires asked for interval estimates of birth years for five famous characters from world history (Mohammed, Newton, Mozart, Napoleon, and Einstein), and the years of death for five other famous persons (Nero, Copernicus, Galileo, Shakespeare, and Lincoln).”
I tested to answer these questions myself with 90% confidence intervals, and my result was that I was correct 7⁄10 questions, so seems like I still am overconfident in my answers even though I just read about it. But to be fair, 10 questions are far from statistical significance.