If you have problems with willpower, maybe you should make your predictions explicit whenever you try to use it. I mean, as a rationalist, you are already trying to be better calibrated, so you could leverage the same mechanism into supporting your willpower. If you predict a 90% success of some action, and you know that you are right, in theory you should feel small resistance. And if you predict a 10% success, maybe you shouldn’t be doing it? And it helps you to be honest to yourself.
(This has a serious problem, though. Sometimes the things with 10% chance of success are worth doing, if the cost is small and the potential gain large enough. Maybe in such cases you should reframe it somehow. Either bet on large numbers “if I keep doing X every day, I will succeed within a month”, or bet on some different outcome “if I start a new company, there is a 10% chance of financial success, and a 90% chance that it will make a cool story to impress my friends”.)
This also suggests that it is futile to use willpower in situations where you have little autonomy. If you try hard, and then an external influence ruins all your plans, and this was all entirely predictable, you just burned your internal credibility.
(Again, sometimes you need at least to keep the appearance of trying hard, even if you have little control over the outcome. For example, you have a job where the boss overrides all your decisions and thereby ruins the projects, but you still need the money and can’t afford to get fired. It could help to reframe, to make the bet about the part that is under your control. Such as “if I try, I can make this code work, and I will feel good about being competent”, even if later I am told to throw the code away because the requirements have changed again.)
This also reminds me about “goals vs systems”. If you think about a goal you want to achieve, then every day (except for maybe the last one) is the day when you are not there yet; i.e. almost every day is a failure. Instead, if you think about a system you want to follow, then every day you have followed the system successfully is a success. Which suggests that willpower will work better if you aim it at following a system, and stop thinking about the goal. (You need to think about the goal when you set up the system, but then you should stop thinking about it and only focus on the system.)
The strategy of “success spiral” could be interpreted as a way to get your credibility back. Make many small attempts, achieve many small successes, then attempt gradually larger things. (The financial analogy is that when you are poor, you need to do business that does not require large upfront investments, and gradually accumulate capital for larger projects.)
Just some quick guesses:
If you have problems with willpower, maybe you should make your predictions explicit whenever you try to use it. I mean, as a rationalist, you are already trying to be better calibrated, so you could leverage the same mechanism into supporting your willpower. If you predict a 90% success of some action, and you know that you are right, in theory you should feel small resistance. And if you predict a 10% success, maybe you shouldn’t be doing it? And it helps you to be honest to yourself.
(This has a serious problem, though. Sometimes the things with 10% chance of success are worth doing, if the cost is small and the potential gain large enough. Maybe in such cases you should reframe it somehow. Either bet on large numbers “if I keep doing X every day, I will succeed within a month”, or bet on some different outcome “if I start a new company, there is a 10% chance of financial success, and a 90% chance that it will make a cool story to impress my friends”.)
This also suggests that it is futile to use willpower in situations where you have little autonomy. If you try hard, and then an external influence ruins all your plans, and this was all entirely predictable, you just burned your internal credibility.
(Again, sometimes you need at least to keep the appearance of trying hard, even if you have little control over the outcome. For example, you have a job where the boss overrides all your decisions and thereby ruins the projects, but you still need the money and can’t afford to get fired. It could help to reframe, to make the bet about the part that is under your control. Such as “if I try, I can make this code work, and I will feel good about being competent”, even if later I am told to throw the code away because the requirements have changed again.)
This also reminds me about “goals vs systems”. If you think about a goal you want to achieve, then every day (except for maybe the last one) is the day when you are not there yet; i.e. almost every day is a failure. Instead, if you think about a system you want to follow, then every day you have followed the system successfully is a success. Which suggests that willpower will work better if you aim it at following a system, and stop thinking about the goal. (You need to think about the goal when you set up the system, but then you should stop thinking about it and only focus on the system.)
The strategy of “success spiral” could be interpreted as a way to get your credibility back. Make many small attempts, achieve many small successes, then attempt gradually larger things. (The financial analogy is that when you are poor, you need to do business that does not require large upfront investments, and gradually accumulate capital for larger projects.)