We should also consider what beliefs or knowledge it could have that would cause it to stay home. For instance:
The Universe is a simulation and making parts of it more complex or expensive to simulate would shorten the life of other complex parts, would crash the simulation, would fail because the simulation wouldn’t allow it, would draw undesired attention from the simulators, etc.
If their civilization spread to other stars, lightspeed limits would make them effectively independent, and eventually value drift or selfishness would cause conflict or would harm their existing goals
There is some danger out there, perhaps a relic of an even older civilization, and the best course is to hide from it; humans have not yet been attacked because we only started beaming out radio signals less than a hundred years ago
If (1) is true, it would prevent them from spreading all over the galaxy, so they can’t find us (to destroy us) this early in our evolution, a hundred years after we used radio. They might still destroy us relatively soon,, but they wouldn’t be present in every star system. (Also, the fact we evolved in the first place might be evidence against this scenario.)
If (2) is true, they would have to somehow destroy all other life in the galaxy without risking that destroying-mechanism value-drifting or being used by a rival faction. This might be hard. Also, their values might not endorse destroying aliens without even contacting them.
If (1) is true the aliens should fear any type of life developing on other planets because that life would greatly increase the complexity of the galaxy. My guess is that life on earth has, for a very long time, done things to our atmosphere that would allow an advanced civilization to be aware that our planet harbors life.
Note, sending probes out any distance may increase computational requirements. Approximations are no longer sufficient when an agent’s eye comes up very close to them. Unless we can expect the superintelligence to detect these signs from a great distance, from the home star, it might not afford to see them.
Also worth considering: Probes that close their eyes to everything but life-supporting planets, so that it wont notice the low grain of approximations and approximations can continue to be used in its presence.
We should also consider what beliefs or knowledge it could have that would cause it to stay home. For instance:
The Universe is a simulation and making parts of it more complex or expensive to simulate would shorten the life of other complex parts, would crash the simulation, would fail because the simulation wouldn’t allow it, would draw undesired attention from the simulators, etc.
If their civilization spread to other stars, lightspeed limits would make them effectively independent, and eventually value drift or selfishness would cause conflict or would harm their existing goals
There is some danger out there, perhaps a relic of an even older civilization, and the best course is to hide from it; humans have not yet been attacked because we only started beaming out radio signals less than a hundred years ago
If (1) or (2) is correct they should destroy us.
If (1) is true, it would prevent them from spreading all over the galaxy, so they can’t find us (to destroy us) this early in our evolution, a hundred years after we used radio. They might still destroy us relatively soon,, but they wouldn’t be present in every star system. (Also, the fact we evolved in the first place might be evidence against this scenario.)
If (2) is true, they would have to somehow destroy all other life in the galaxy without risking that destroying-mechanism value-drifting or being used by a rival faction. This might be hard. Also, their values might not endorse destroying aliens without even contacting them.
If (1) is true the aliens should fear any type of life developing on other planets because that life would greatly increase the complexity of the galaxy. My guess is that life on earth has, for a very long time, done things to our atmosphere that would allow an advanced civilization to be aware that our planet harbors life.
This is actually a fairly healthy field of study. See, for example, Nonphotosynthetic Pigments as Potential Biosignatures.
Note, sending probes out any distance may increase computational requirements. Approximations are no longer sufficient when an agent’s eye comes up very close to them. Unless we can expect the superintelligence to detect these signs from a great distance, from the home star, it might not afford to see them.
Also worth considering: Probes that close their eyes to everything but life-supporting planets, so that it wont notice the low grain of approximations and approximations can continue to be used in its presence.