It’s surely time to start modeling the endgame, in the form of vaccination scenarios, starting with critical personnel, and extending to the broader population as more doses become available. Not predictions, there’s not enough definite information yet, but scenarios: make some assumptions about how vaccines will work (e.g. are boosts needed every few months) and about when they become available, assumptions that are plausible and that are concrete enough to have definite implications—and then let’s see what that looks like, let’s see what those implications are.
I also don’t think that the US has done especially badly, if judged by world standards. I think of its outcome as between Europe’s and Mexico’s. Very crudely, I think of the populations at risk from Covid as being, first of all, those who are ill or weak due to age, and secondly, younger people with an existing health problem that puts them at risk. Geographically and in terms of total population, the US is comparable to the EU, but would have more people with the kind of conditions (diabetes, hypertension, obesity) that have made the Mexican death rate so high.
I’d also be interested to know what you think of Alex Berenson’s oeuvre. He’s criticized a lot of policy and journalism regarding the pandemic, and I think some of his criticisms would be right and some wrong, but haven’t taken the time to sift through them.
It’s surely time to start modeling the endgame, in the form of vaccination scenarios, starting with critical personnel, and extending to the broader population as more doses become available. Not predictions, there’s not enough definite information yet, but scenarios: make some assumptions about how vaccines will work (e.g. are boosts needed every few months) and about when they become available, assumptions that are plausible and that are concrete enough to have definite implications—and then let’s see what that looks like, let’s see what those implications are.
I also don’t think that the US has done especially badly, if judged by world standards. I think of its outcome as between Europe’s and Mexico’s. Very crudely, I think of the populations at risk from Covid as being, first of all, those who are ill or weak due to age, and secondly, younger people with an existing health problem that puts them at risk. Geographically and in terms of total population, the US is comparable to the EU, but would have more people with the kind of conditions (diabetes, hypertension, obesity) that have made the Mexican death rate so high.
I’d also be interested to know what you think of Alex Berenson’s oeuvre. He’s criticized a lot of policy and journalism regarding the pandemic, and I think some of his criticisms would be right and some wrong, but haven’t taken the time to sift through them.