Out of curiosity, is there any tool to facilitate personal predictions? When I’ve tried to do this in the past (using a Google Sheet) I tend to forget to score my predictions. I did some basic searching for a short-term prediction tracker (ideally something that would let you mark the outcome of a prediction and then calculate your calibration over time) and couldn’t find anything. This seems like the sort of thing that could be languishing in someone’s Github.
Alternatively, if this tool doesn’t already exist, should it?
I like PredictionBook.com for this sort of thing. You make predictions with confidences and then set a date on which they’ll be ready to be judged. By default, predictions you make are public, but you can also easily make private predictions.
Out of curiosity, is there any tool to facilitate personal predictions? When I’ve tried to do this in the past (using a Google Sheet) I tend to forget to score my predictions. I did some basic searching for a short-term prediction tracker (ideally something that would let you mark the outcome of a prediction and then calculate your calibration over time) and couldn’t find anything. This seems like the sort of thing that could be languishing in someone’s Github.
Alternatively, if this tool doesn’t already exist, should it?
I like PredictionBook.com for this sort of thing. You make predictions with confidences and then set a date on which they’ll be ready to be judged. By default, predictions you make are public, but you can also easily make private predictions.
Thank you! That’s exactly what I was looking for! They even have an open API.