To do better, you need a more detailed (closer to gears-level) understanding of how doom does vs. does not happen, along many different possible paths, and then you can think clearly about how new info affect all the paths.
Prior to that, though, I’d like a better sense of how I should even react to different estimates of P(doom).
To do better, you need a more detailed (closer to gears-level) understanding of how doom does vs. does not happen, along many different possible paths, and then you can think clearly about how new info affect all the paths.
Prior to that, though, I’d like a better sense of how I should even react to different estimates of P(doom).