“(though you can make an argument that being hated by Kim Jong-un is a net benefit to a US politician). ”
Yeah, sure, that works too, though then the ‘threat of being nuked’ seems like a red herring.
“In the case of my example, the market participants all genuinely believe that there is no causal effect of the election results. However, they are not ignoring it: The contracts are just written such that participants are not asked to bet on the causal effect of the election results, but on conditional probabilities.”
That makes a lot more sense than the original post, IMO. I’m still trying to process it entirely though, and figure out how useful such an example is. Thanks for your responses.
“(though you can make an argument that being hated by Kim Jong-un is a net benefit to a US politician). ”
Yeah, sure, that works too, though then the ‘threat of being nuked’ seems like a red herring.
“In the case of my example, the market participants all genuinely believe that there is no causal effect of the election results. However, they are not ignoring it: The contracts are just written such that participants are not asked to bet on the causal effect of the election results, but on conditional probabilities.”
That makes a lot more sense than the original post, IMO. I’m still trying to process it entirely though, and figure out how useful such an example is. Thanks for your responses.