Yes, the point of futarchy is to make the decision based on the price in the prediction market. What I am saying is that if you want participants to provide their best guesses about which decisions will maximize the outcome, you have to make a credible pre-commitment that the only factor that influences the decision is the prediction market that is currently being traded. You can only make such a commitment for one prediction market per decision (but like you say, the outcome measure can be arbitrarily complex)
I think you are right that once it becomes known whether Kim is overthrown, it is no longer a confounder. Therefore, the bias should be expected to get lower the nearer we get to the decision time point. However, some confounders may be unobservable, or unobserved until the time the decision is made. For instance, if this is not a pure futarchy and there is voting going on, you may gain information from the make-up of the electorate. Imagine there is a referendum on a 70% income tax and Bernie Sanders is running for President. Even if he has no influence on whether the referendum passes, his chances of being elected will be correlated with the outcome of the referendum, and you won’t know which state you are in until you see the exit polls.
Yes, the point of futarchy is to make the decision based on the price in the prediction market. What I am saying is that if you want participants to provide their best guesses about which decisions will maximize the outcome, you have to make a credible pre-commitment that the only factor that influences the decision is the prediction market that is currently being traded. You can only make such a commitment for one prediction market per decision (but like you say, the outcome measure can be arbitrarily complex)
I think you are right that once it becomes known whether Kim is overthrown, it is no longer a confounder. Therefore, the bias should be expected to get lower the nearer we get to the decision time point. However, some confounders may be unobservable, or unobserved until the time the decision is made. For instance, if this is not a pure futarchy and there is voting going on, you may gain information from the make-up of the electorate. Imagine there is a referendum on a 70% income tax and Bernie Sanders is running for President. Even if he has no influence on whether the referendum passes, his chances of being elected will be correlated with the outcome of the referendum, and you won’t know which state you are in until you see the exit polls.