This pattern has played out many, many times. Unreplicated studies claiming to show psychic powers are not uncommon. They always either have flaws in their methodology that explain the results, or fail to replicate (either because it was an artifact of publication bias and a low p-value, because of a methodological flaw that was not recorded, or because of cooked data). I am four-nines confident (p=0.9999) that either this study will fail to replicate, that someone will point out a flaw in its methodology, or that when I look for a flaw in its methodology myself I’ll find one.
And quite frankly, both Ben Goertzel and the editors of H+ Magazine should’ve reached the same conclusion. Reporting on an unreplicated study claiming precognition is stupid and irresponsible, and doing so dramatically lowers Ben Goertzel’s and H+ Magazine’s respect in my eyes.
This pattern has played out many, many times. Unreplicated studies claiming to show psychic powers are not uncommon. They always either have flaws in their methodology that explain the results, or fail to replicate (either because it was an artifact of publication bias and a low p-value, because of a methodological flaw that was not recorded, or because of cooked data). I am four-nines confident (p=0.9999) that either this study will fail to replicate, that someone will point out a flaw in its methodology, or that when I look for a flaw in its methodology myself I’ll find one.
And quite frankly, both Ben Goertzel and the editors of H+ Magazine should’ve reached the same conclusion. Reporting on an unreplicated study claiming precognition is stupid and irresponsible, and doing so dramatically lowers Ben Goertzel’s and H+ Magazine’s respect in my eyes.
Ben has been promoting psi research since 2008. See his review of Damien Broderick’s book on psi.
Robin would suggest betting, I think.
The obvious way this game is played is to offer specific bets, with specific odds and amounts. Then wait for a counter offer, or the absence thereof.