I should rephrase: I would like to accurately believe that the figure isn’t very high.
I’m actually really uncertain about whether there’s a meaningful distinction between “I want to sincerely and rationally believe x” and “I want x to be true” for a perfect Bayesian. For humans, of course, the distinction is enormous.
I should rephrase: I would like to accurately believe that the figure isn’t very high.
I’m actually really uncertain about whether there’s a meaningful distinction between “I want to sincerely and rationally believe x” and “I want x to be true” for a perfect Bayesian. For humans, of course, the distinction is enormous.