The whole point of capitalism is that the people who have and direct money are the ones who can make good decisions about how it should be used. When you see firsthand that high-level decision-making is a farce, where does that leave you?
I actually don’t see capitalism as being fueled primarily by good decision-making in the C suite. Instead, I think that there’s significant uncertainty around decisions at all levels of the company, and many limitations to their courses of action. Many, many businesses fail because of this.
But an existing company has been selected for having lurched its way to having robust demand, to an extent that all that uncertainty and confusion can be tolerated. There’s an incredibly powerful market signal saying MAKE THIS PRODUCT, and the company can survive and even thrive as long as it does a passable job.
But for the same reason, I don’t think that most good-paying jobs are attached to the person of wealthy individuals, and I don’t think there’s a finite number of them either. Jobs pop up in businesses that are set to fail as well as longstanding successful businesses. CEOs can’t just pack up a company and move it at the drop of a hat, much as they’d like it if they could. There’s lots of money out there looking for founders to invest in, and those founders need teams, and when those teams are successful, new companies grow, creating new jobs. And the winners get bought out, and big companies spin off little companies, and on and on. I think this is a pretty typical, mainstream view of economics.
It’s really hard for me to imagine what experiences could have lead you to think there’s just this static, finite number of jobs that rich people can take when they decide to move to a different town because too many poor people moved in. Even if most CEOs are very dumb (and I still don’t think that’s likely to be true), the zero-sum model doesn’t follow, and again—I don’t really understand the details of your zero-sum model well enough to fully understand what it is you’re proposing.
This is why I think it would be really helpful for you to make an effort to plug into a larger conversation. I appreciate and sort of believe that you’ve had experiences that would be convincing evidence of some of your claims, if only you could share them openly. But given that you can’t, you could at least look for what evidence is out in public—beyond just one letter by Bill Gates—and try to make a real case for some of the components of your worldview. If you are correct, then we all could learn from you, but it is very hard to open myself to updating my worldview very much based on the arguments and evidence you have gathered here.
There’s lots of money out there looking for founders to invest in, and those founders need teams, and when those teams are successful, new companies grow, creating new jobs.
Those investors tend to invest specifically in locations near themselves. That’s a big part of the centralizing dynamic I’m trying to explain.
And the winners get bought out
It’s easier to get bought out when you’re located closer to the buyer. And mergers often lead to the purchased company moving.
Even if most CEOs are very dumb (and I still don’t think that’s likely to be true),
Rather than saying US executives are “dumb” I’d say that they’re specialized in things that society doesn’t want them specialized in, like playing political games with other executives. Also, my experience is that “normal” people are far more impressed by MBA-speak and MBAs than engineer-speak and engineers.
effort to plug into a larger conversation
You mean...longer posts with more links in them? Here? Or what?
you could at least look for what evidence is out in public—beyond just one letter by Bill Gates—and try to make a real case for some of the components of your worldview.
It’s not really possible to do studies on this, so all I could do is point at a bunch of anecdotes, and then readers could still just say that’s cherry-picking. So, people have to estimate base rates from their personal experiences, which are biased but known not to be adversarially picked. Or, readers could assume that what’s reported by journalists/pundits is a consensus and thus more reliable. All I felt that I could do was set up a framework for people who already had evidence from their experiences.
If you are correct, then we all could learn from you, but it is very hard to open myself to updating my worldview very much based on the arguments and evidence you have gathered here.
That’s certainly understandable. At the same time, I kind of have other things to do, such as actually thinking about technology.
I actually don’t see capitalism as being fueled primarily by good decision-making in the C suite. Instead, I think that there’s significant uncertainty around decisions at all levels of the company, and many limitations to their courses of action. Many, many businesses fail because of this.
But an existing company has been selected for having lurched its way to having robust demand, to an extent that all that uncertainty and confusion can be tolerated. There’s an incredibly powerful market signal saying MAKE THIS PRODUCT, and the company can survive and even thrive as long as it does a passable job.
But for the same reason, I don’t think that most good-paying jobs are attached to the person of wealthy individuals, and I don’t think there’s a finite number of them either. Jobs pop up in businesses that are set to fail as well as longstanding successful businesses. CEOs can’t just pack up a company and move it at the drop of a hat, much as they’d like it if they could. There’s lots of money out there looking for founders to invest in, and those founders need teams, and when those teams are successful, new companies grow, creating new jobs. And the winners get bought out, and big companies spin off little companies, and on and on. I think this is a pretty typical, mainstream view of economics.
It’s really hard for me to imagine what experiences could have lead you to think there’s just this static, finite number of jobs that rich people can take when they decide to move to a different town because too many poor people moved in. Even if most CEOs are very dumb (and I still don’t think that’s likely to be true), the zero-sum model doesn’t follow, and again—I don’t really understand the details of your zero-sum model well enough to fully understand what it is you’re proposing.
This is why I think it would be really helpful for you to make an effort to plug into a larger conversation. I appreciate and sort of believe that you’ve had experiences that would be convincing evidence of some of your claims, if only you could share them openly. But given that you can’t, you could at least look for what evidence is out in public—beyond just one letter by Bill Gates—and try to make a real case for some of the components of your worldview. If you are correct, then we all could learn from you, but it is very hard to open myself to updating my worldview very much based on the arguments and evidence you have gathered here.
Those investors tend to invest specifically in locations near themselves. That’s a big part of the centralizing dynamic I’m trying to explain.
It’s easier to get bought out when you’re located closer to the buyer. And mergers often lead to the purchased company moving.
Rather than saying US executives are “dumb” I’d say that they’re specialized in things that society doesn’t want them specialized in, like playing political games with other executives. Also, my experience is that “normal” people are far more impressed by MBA-speak and MBAs than engineer-speak and engineers.
You mean...longer posts with more links in them? Here? Or what?
It’s not really possible to do studies on this, so all I could do is point at a bunch of anecdotes, and then readers could still just say that’s cherry-picking. So, people have to estimate base rates from their personal experiences, which are biased but known not to be adversarially picked. Or, readers could assume that what’s reported by journalists/pundits is a consensus and thus more reliable. All I felt that I could do was set up a framework for people who already had evidence from their experiences.
That’s certainly understandable. At the same time, I kind of have other things to do, such as actually thinking about technology.