yes, you would need the catastrophe detector to be reasonably robust. Although I think it’s fine if e.g. you have at least 1/million chance of catching any particular catastrophe.
I think there is a gap, but that the gap is probably not that bad (for “worst case” tail risk estimation). That is maybe because I think being able to do estimation through a single forward pass is likely already to be very hard, and to require being able to do “abstractions” over the concepts being manipulated by the forward pass. CoT seems like it will require vaguely similar struction of a qualitatively similar kind.
yes, you would need the catastrophe detector to be reasonably robust. Although I think it’s fine if e.g. you have at least 1/million chance of catching any particular catastrophe.
I think there is a gap, but that the gap is probably not that bad (for “worst case” tail risk estimation). That is maybe because I think being able to do estimation through a single forward pass is likely already to be very hard, and to require being able to do “abstractions” over the concepts being manipulated by the forward pass. CoT seems like it will require vaguely similar struction of a qualitatively similar kind.