I was just reading the thread comparing covid and tobacco, and it made me start wondering about the effect of statistical numeracy in general.
Personally, I have a lot of room for improvement when it comes to these skills (but at least I am aware of this). I do regularly notice the difference in my impression when someone talks about a 3x increase vs a 300% increase, or 1/1000 vs 0.1%, etc.; and I often make a quick conversion in my head when it’s convenient. I also know a few mortality stats by heart which I can use to very roughly benchmark certain claims I hear about risk and safety.
Frequently, when I practice this minimal numeracy, it is accompanied by a sense of futility. When the stakes mostly involve policy-making or group action, my own statistical literacy may be inactionable—it may make basically no difference to my life or the world. What matters instead is what sorts of political messages resonate with voters, or what sorts of heuristics will catch on, etc.
So to sharpen my question, suppose you went back in time 20 years, magically caused the whole world to be much more numerate, and then just lived normally for the next 20 years. What about this world, if anything, would be drastically different from our own world?
(For those who want to get serious about the hypothetical: Let’s say that in this alternate world, a typical high school graduate in the US has been trained in the habits of mind outlined in the second paragraph. Let’s also say that numeracy and literacy track closely—so in any given country, you would be just as surprised to witness base-rate neglect as you would be to witness an inability to read road signs. Feel free to ask for more details or to tweak the hypothetical yourself.)
Well, obviously Covid wouldn’t have happened. People would drive less, take public transit (especially planes) more (alternatively, planes would be massively deregulated and become incredibly cheap to fly). People who feel even a bit sick would wear masks.
I would imagine that this type of numeracy would extend into the personal realm to include things like personal finance and personal productivity. They would cook their own meals more, eat healthier, and possibly buy less luxury goods.
They would push for the end of coal plants (24 deaths per TWh compared to .02/TWh for solar), decreasing the amount of funding the military gets for anti-terrorism activities, and charging the leadership team of Boeing and the FAA for criminal negligence.
People should take planes because they are safe, and airlines should be deregulated, and deregulation won’t affect safety?
I guess the question is “how much of people choosing one mode of transit over another is caused by innumeracy?” Planes are several times less risky than cars, but planes are also highly, highly regulated. If you took those regulations away, let anybody who wants to build and fly a plane, and then completely remove the TSA prechecks, you lower the cost of the planes, lower the non-travel time commitment, and presumably raise the risk of flying.
But would it beat a car? Would they reach equilibrium?
More nuclear power. Less hysteria over child sex abuse. More lenient crime policy.
In general, people would worry less about very-unlikely attention-grabbing events, which I expect would lead them to take more risks.
There are dumb teachers, fat dieticians, and doctors who smoke.
These answer seem to assume that people do dumb thing because they don’t know they are dumb. There is much contradictory evidence to that assumption.