If I go in the garage and observe that the floor is wet, I would update in the direction of
it rained last night; and
Frank left the garage door open again; and
the tools the boys negligently left outside in the grass all night got rusty.
But that of course does not mean that if the tools had not gotten rusty, the garage floor would not have gotten wet.
In other words, Eliezer was writing about statistical relationships, and you seem to have mistaken them for causal relationships.
If I go in the garage and observe that the floor is wet, I would update in the direction of
it rained last night; and
Frank left the garage door open again; and
the tools the boys negligently left outside in the grass all night got rusty.
But that of course does not mean that if the tools had not gotten rusty, the garage floor would not have gotten wet.
In other words, Eliezer was writing about statistical relationships, and you seem to have mistaken them for causal relationships.