I had thought that the question of AI timelines was so central that the core SI research community would have long since Aumannated and come to a consensus probability distribution.
Maybe I was absent from the office that day? I hadn’t heard Carl’s 2083 estimate (I recently asked him in person what the actual median was, and he averaged his last several predictions together to get 2083) until now, and it was indeed outside what I thought was our Aumann-range, hence my surprise.
This is puzzling.
I had thought that the question of AI timelines was so central that the core SI research community would have long since Aumannated and come to a consensus probability distribution.
Anyway, good you’re doing it now.
Maybe I was absent from the office that day? I hadn’t heard Carl’s 2083 estimate (I recently asked him in person what the actual median was, and he averaged his last several predictions together to get 2083) until now, and it was indeed outside what I thought was our Aumann-range, hence my surprise.
It seems like the sort of thing people would plan to do on a day you were going to be in the office.
We had discussed timelines to this effect last year.