I think you are asking the wrong question. What do you want to use these credences for? Are you planning to work on fundamental physics? Then the relevant question is something like “In what area am I likely to make progress?” or “Which of these fields offers the best opportunities for advancement?” If one does not expect to ever know what model, if any, will successfully unite QM and GR, then asking for credences is a fun but pointless speculation.
(Now, to express my personal speculative view for fun, I suspect that none of the existing models come close to anything like a “Theory of Everything”, we are short a couple of paradigm shifts and about 10 orders of magnitude off in experiments, but there will be progress once experiment catches up by e.g. measuring gravcats.)
I think you are asking the wrong question. What do you want to use these credences for? Are you planning to work on fundamental physics? Then the relevant question is something like “In what area am I likely to make progress?” or “Which of these fields offers the best opportunities for advancement?” If one does not expect to ever know what model, if any, will successfully unite QM and GR, then asking for credences is a fun but pointless speculation.
(Now, to express my personal speculative view for fun, I suspect that none of the existing models come close to anything like a “Theory of Everything”, we are short a couple of paradigm shifts and about 10 orders of magnitude off in experiments, but there will be progress once experiment catches up by e.g. measuring gravcats.)