One would suspect that the emerald-producing locations in our universe do not behave quite as cleanly as mathematically as you describe them. Instead, fuzziness and messiness creep in. Maybe such sites degrade over time, causing the emeralds to be slightly bluer. Maybe not.
Broad principles like “green earlier implies green now” are approximations that allow us to simplify the complexity of actual, extremely difficult Bayesian inference.
One would suspect that the emerald-producing locations in our universe do not behave quite as cleanly as mathematically as you describe them. Instead, fuzziness and messiness creep in. Maybe such sites degrade over time, causing the emeralds to be slightly bluer. Maybe not.
Broad principles like “green earlier implies green now” are approximations that allow us to simplify the complexity of actual, extremely difficult Bayesian inference.