It seems that the assumption in your hypothetical is of an unchanging process producing the random variable, about which we have partial knowledge. In the case of the ball, we know of the unmoving invisible line, the throws uniformly distributed over the table, and whatever mechanism it is that lets us know whether the ball has fallen to the left or the right of the line. However, we don’t know enough to know exactly where the balls will land. In the case of the emeralds, we know enough about the emerald construction sites to know that they are grue-blind, and that they will stay grue-blind no matter how many emeralds they produce. In both cases, we know something of the mechanism behind the random variable, and that it will not change. Is that correct?
You talk of a threat to the whole of science. How does your answer to this hypothetical respond to that threat? Do scientists ever have the knowledge assumed in your hypotheticals? How can scientists gain that knowledge in the first place without getting grued up, if they need it that knowledge to stay gruefree? It reminds me of Bugs Bunny pulling himself out of a magicians hat, by holding his ears.
It seems that the assumption in your hypothetical is of an unchanging process producing the random variable
It is not, my assumption is of a definite frequency with which some result comes, out of trials.
When you realize that the reason you don’t determine the meaning of green using grue and bleen because there is a physical test which has higher authority in defining greenhood, the threat disolves.
By “frequency” I suppose you mean the fraction of balls dropped on the right out of all ball drops, past and future?
And with emeralds… I guess you mean the fraction of green emeralds out of all emeralds that hbe been or will be observed?
I suppose the physical test in the ball problem is the ball landing on one side or the other of the line.
In the emerald problem, the physical test is, what is it?
It seems that the assumption in your hypothetical is of an unchanging process producing the random variable, about which we have partial knowledge. In the case of the ball, we know of the unmoving invisible line, the throws uniformly distributed over the table, and whatever mechanism it is that lets us know whether the ball has fallen to the left or the right of the line. However, we don’t know enough to know exactly where the balls will land. In the case of the emeralds, we know enough about the emerald construction sites to know that they are grue-blind, and that they will stay grue-blind no matter how many emeralds they produce. In both cases, we know something of the mechanism behind the random variable, and that it will not change. Is that correct?
You talk of a threat to the whole of science. How does your answer to this hypothetical respond to that threat? Do scientists ever have the knowledge assumed in your hypotheticals? How can scientists gain that knowledge in the first place without getting grued up, if they need it that knowledge to stay gruefree? It reminds me of Bugs Bunny pulling himself out of a magicians hat, by holding his ears.
It is not, my assumption is of a definite frequency with which some result comes, out of trials.
When you realize that the reason you don’t determine the meaning of green using grue and bleen because there is a physical test which has higher authority in defining greenhood, the threat disolves.
By “frequency” I suppose you mean the fraction of balls dropped on the right out of all ball drops, past and future? And with emeralds… I guess you mean the fraction of green emeralds out of all emeralds that hbe been or will be observed?
I suppose the physical test in the ball problem is the ball landing on one side or the other of the line. In the emerald problem, the physical test is, what is it?