I think models that rely on fundamentals are worthless. I don’t have time to explain why in details, though perhaps I will post something on that at some point, but if you want to know the gist of my argument, it’s that models of that kind are massively underdetermined by the evidence.
OK. That’s interesting. I disagree but I can see why you’d think that, and in a way I’m kind of sympathetic: I think overfitting definitely happens with some of the poli. sci. models. My go-to model is my go-to exactly because its author really seems to appreciate the overfitting issue, and is very insistent on aiming for proper explanation, not just prediction.
I think models that rely on fundamentals are worthless. I don’t have time to explain why in details, though perhaps I will post something on that at some point, but if you want to know the gist of my argument, it’s that models of that kind are massively underdetermined by the evidence.
OK. That’s interesting. I disagree but I can see why you’d think that, and in a way I’m kind of sympathetic: I think overfitting definitely happens with some of the poli. sci. models. My go-to model is my go-to exactly because its author really seems to appreciate the overfitting issue, and is very insistent on aiming for proper explanation, not just prediction.