A cursory glance through Fivethirtyeight’s collected poll data shows a survey with over 84,000 voters (CCES/YouGov) giving Clinton a +4 percentage point lead, with 538 adjusting that to +2. Google and SurveyMonkey routinely had surveys of 20,000+ individuals, with one SurveyMonkey one having 70,000 with Clinton +5 (+4 adjusted). There was no clear reason to prefer your poll (whichever that one was) over these. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/
And it should go without saying that Clinton did end up at +2 nationally.
I’m not sure you have read my post. Nowhere in it do I say that we should have focused on one poll rather than another. So I’m not sure what relevance your comment has.
Its relevance is that it rebuts tukabel’s suggestion that “the biggest poll” was of “50000″ people and showed a “completely different picture” to the mainstream polls indicating a Clinton lead.
A cursory glance through Fivethirtyeight’s collected poll data shows a survey with over 84,000 voters (CCES/YouGov) giving Clinton a +4 percentage point lead, with 538 adjusting that to +2. Google and SurveyMonkey routinely had surveys of 20,000+ individuals, with one SurveyMonkey one having 70,000 with Clinton +5 (+4 adjusted). There was no clear reason to prefer your poll (whichever that one was) over these. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/
And it should go without saying that Clinton did end up at +2 nationally.
I’m not sure you have read my post. Nowhere in it do I say that we should have focused on one poll rather than another. So I’m not sure what relevance your comment has.
Its relevance is that it rebuts tukabel’s suggestion that “the biggest poll” was of “50000″ people and showed a “completely different picture” to the mainstream polls indicating a Clinton lead.
Oh I see. I had totally missed the fact that it was a reply to another comment. Apologies to tgb.
No problem!