“Don’t say things that you believe to be literally false in a context where people will (with reasonably high probability) persistently believe that you believe them to be true”
is actually in line with the “bayesian honesty” component/formulation of the proposal. If one is known to universally lie, one’s words have no information content, and therefore don’t increase other people’s bayesian probabilities of falsy statements. However, it seems this is not a behaviour that Eliezer finds morally satisfactory. (I agree with Rob Bensinger that this formulation is more practical in daily life)
I think that
is actually in line with the “bayesian honesty” component/formulation of the proposal. If one is known to universally lie, one’s words have no information content, and therefore don’t increase other people’s bayesian probabilities of falsy statements. However, it seems this is not a behaviour that Eliezer finds morally satisfactory. (I agree with Rob Bensinger that this formulation is more practical in daily life)