My current guess is that many organizations already have anti-werewolf systems, but it’s a continuous anti-inductive process, and everyone is deploying their most powerful anti-werewolf social tech at the highest levels. (which consists of a small number of people. So, the typical observer notices “jeez, there are lots of werewolves around, why isn’t anyone doing anything about this?” but actually yes people are doing that, and they’re keeping their anti-werewolf tech illegible so that it’s hard for werewolves to adapt to it. This just isn’t much benefit to the average person.
I also assume anti-werewolf tech is only one of many things you need to succeed. If you were to develop a dramatic advance in anti-werewolf tech, it’d give you an edge, if you are also competent at other things. And the probably is that most of the things you need are anti-inductive – at least the werewolf tech, having a core product that is better than the competition. And many other good business practices are, if not anti-inductive, at least quite hard.
If it were possible to develop anti-werewolf tech that is robust to being fully public about how it works, I agree that’d be a huge advance. I’m personally skeptical that this will ever work as a silver bullet* though.
*(lol at accidental werewolf metaphor)
To be clear, I’m very glad you’re working on anti-werewolf tech, I think it’s one of the necessary things to have good guys working on, I just don’t expect it to translate into decisive strategic advantage.
Either it’s possible to produce people/systems that detect werewolves at scale, or it isn’t. If it isn’t, we have problems.
My prediction is that “we have problems”, and that the solutions will necessarily involve dealing with those problems for a very long time, the hard way.
(I’d also reword to “it’s either possible to produce werewolf detection at a scale and reliability that outpaces werewolf evolution, or it isn’t.” Which I think maps pretty cleanly to medicine – we discovered antibiotics, which was real powerful for awhile, but eventually runs the risk of stopping working)
To be clear, I’m very glad you’re working on anti-werewolf tech, I think it’s one of the necessary things to have good guys working on, I just don’t expect it to translate into decisive strategic advantage.
I agree, it’s necessary to reach at least the standard of mediocrity on other aspects of e.g. running a business, and often higher standards than that. My belief isn’t that anti-werewolf tech immediately causes you to win, so much as that it expands your computational ability to the point where you are in a much better position to compute and implement the path to victory, which itself has many object-level parts to it, and requires adjustment over time.
Nod. I think we may disagree upon some of the nuances of the ways reality-is-likely-to-turn out, but are in rough agreement on the broad strokes (and in any case I think I’ve run out of cached beliefs that are relevant to the conversation, and don’t expect to make progress in the immediate future on figuring out the details of those nuances).
My current guess is that many organizations already have anti-werewolf systems, but it’s a continuous anti-inductive process, and everyone is deploying their most powerful anti-werewolf social tech at the highest levels. (which consists of a small number of people. So, the typical observer notices “jeez, there are lots of werewolves around, why isn’t anyone doing anything about this?” but actually yes people are doing that, and they’re keeping their anti-werewolf tech illegible so that it’s hard for werewolves to adapt to it. This just isn’t much benefit to the average person.
I also assume anti-werewolf tech is only one of many things you need to succeed. If you were to develop a dramatic advance in anti-werewolf tech, it’d give you an edge, if you are also competent at other things. And the probably is that most of the things you need are anti-inductive – at least the werewolf tech, having a core product that is better than the competition. And many other good business practices are, if not anti-inductive, at least quite hard.
If it were possible to develop anti-werewolf tech that is robust to being fully public about how it works, I agree that’d be a huge advance. I’m personally skeptical that this will ever work as a silver bullet* though.
*(lol at accidental werewolf metaphor)
To be clear, I’m very glad you’re working on anti-werewolf tech, I think it’s one of the necessary things to have good guys working on, I just don’t expect it to translate into decisive strategic advantage.
Or to put another way:
My prediction is that “we have problems”, and that the solutions will necessarily involve dealing with those problems for a very long time, the hard way.
(I’d also reword to “it’s either possible to produce werewolf detection at a scale and reliability that outpaces werewolf evolution, or it isn’t.” Which I think maps pretty cleanly to medicine – we discovered antibiotics, which was real powerful for awhile, but eventually runs the risk of stopping working)
I agree, it’s necessary to reach at least the standard of mediocrity on other aspects of e.g. running a business, and often higher standards than that. My belief isn’t that anti-werewolf tech immediately causes you to win, so much as that it expands your computational ability to the point where you are in a much better position to compute and implement the path to victory, which itself has many object-level parts to it, and requires adjustment over time.
Nod. I think we may disagree upon some of the nuances of the ways reality-is-likely-to-turn out, but are in rough agreement on the broad strokes (and in any case I think I’ve run out of cached beliefs that are relevant to the conversation, and don’t expect to make progress in the immediate future on figuring out the details of those nuances).