I disagree, and I think this is what Eliezer is hinting towards now I’ve gone back and re-read Newcomb’s Problem and Regret of Rationality. If you really have had sufficient evidence to believe that Omega is either an omniscient mind reader or some kind of acausal agent such that it makes sense to one-box then it makes sense to one-box. It only look like a paradox because you’re failing to imagine having that much evidence. Which incidentally is not really a problem—an inability to imagine highly implausible scenarios in detail is not generally an actual handicap in real world decision making.
I’m still going to two-box if Omega appears tomorrow though because there are very many more likely explanations for the series of events depicted in the story than the one you are supposed to take as given.
I disagree, and I think this is what Eliezer is hinting towards now I’ve gone back and re-read Newcomb’s Problem and Regret of Rationality. If you really have had sufficient evidence to believe that Omega is either an omniscient mind reader or some kind of acausal agent such that it makes sense to one-box then it makes sense to one-box. It only look like a paradox because you’re failing to imagine having that much evidence. Which incidentally is not really a problem—an inability to imagine highly implausible scenarios in detail is not generally an actual handicap in real world decision making.
I’m still going to two-box if Omega appears tomorrow though because there are very many more likely explanations for the series of events depicted in the story than the one you are supposed to take as given.