Actually I think my view is more like 50% from AI systems built by humans (compared to 15% unconditionally), if there is no effort to avoid takeover.
If you continue assuming “no effort to avoid takeover at all” into the indefinite future then I expect eventual takeover is quite likely, maybe more like 80-90% conditioned on nothing else going wrong, though in all these questions it really matters a lot what exactly you mean by “no effort” and it doesn’t seem like a fully coherent counterfactual.
Actually I think my view is more like 50% from AI systems built by humans (compared to 15% unconditionally), if there is no effort to avoid takeover.
If you continue assuming “no effort to avoid takeover at all” into the indefinite future then I expect eventual takeover is quite likely, maybe more like 80-90% conditioned on nothing else going wrong, though in all these questions it really matters a lot what exactly you mean by “no effort” and it doesn’t seem like a fully coherent counterfactual.