The problematic part is when you turn the concept of “despite understanding the rules of all little pieces, it is still difficult for a human to predict some patterns of their interaction” into a noun, and then kinda suggest that it refers to a mysterious thing that many difficult-to-predict patterns have in common, and that there is a way to study this mysterious thing itself, and by doing so gain insight (going beyond “yep, complex things with many parts are often difficult to predict”) into all these difficult-to-predict patterns.
In other words, if you make it seem as if understanding of e.g. gliders and biological evolution (two examples of “emergence”) allows you to better predict stock markets (another example of “emergence”… therefore, they all should have something in common, and you can study that).
Taken literally, that description fits every phenomenon in our universe above the level of individual quarks [...] There’s nothing wrong with saying “X emerges from Y,” where Y is some specific, detailed model with internal moving parts. [...] Gravity arises from the curvature of spacetime, according to the specific mathematical model of General Relativity. Chemistry arises from interactions between atoms, according to the specific model of quantum electrodynamics.
The phrase “emerges from” is acceptable, just like “arises from” or “is caused by” are acceptable, if the phrase precedes some specific model to be judged on its own merits. However, this is not the way “emergence” is commonly used. “Emergence” is commonly used as an explanation in its own right.
Yes, this is a motte of “emergence”.
The problematic part is when you turn the concept of “despite understanding the rules of all little pieces, it is still difficult for a human to predict some patterns of their interaction” into a noun, and then kinda suggest that it refers to a mysterious thing that many difficult-to-predict patterns have in common, and that there is a way to study this mysterious thing itself, and by doing so gain insight (going beyond “yep, complex things with many parts are often difficult to predict”) into all these difficult-to-predict patterns.
In other words, if you make it seem as if understanding of e.g. gliders and biological evolution (two examples of “emergence”) allows you to better predict stock markets (another example of “emergence”… therefore, they all should have something in common, and you can study that).
Quoting Eliezer: (source)