Nice summaries. One point I think it’s worth making about the old worries about eugenics and drug-controlled-populations is that these things were experimented with by various governments around the early 1900s and it was pressure from society, influenced by writers like these, that got us to the better world we currently live in. So I wouldn’t call them so much as bad predictions as successful warnings.
Similarly, if the AGI doomers end up being wrong and humanity comes safely through the invention of superhuman AGI, I expect that humanity will owe the doomsayers a great deal for warning us in time to do something about the problem.
Yes, and similarly, William Crookes warning about a fertilizer shortage in 1898 was correct. Sometimes disaster truly is up ahead and it’s crucial to change our course. What makes the difference IMO is between saying “this disaster will happen and there’s nothing we can do about it” vs. “this disaster will happen unless we recant and turn backwards” vs. “this disaster might happen so we should take positive steps to make sure it doesn’t.”
Nice summaries. One point I think it’s worth making about the old worries about eugenics and drug-controlled-populations is that these things were experimented with by various governments around the early 1900s and it was pressure from society, influenced by writers like these, that got us to the better world we currently live in. So I wouldn’t call them so much as bad predictions as successful warnings. Similarly, if the AGI doomers end up being wrong and humanity comes safely through the invention of superhuman AGI, I expect that humanity will owe the doomsayers a great deal for warning us in time to do something about the problem.
Yes, and similarly, William Crookes warning about a fertilizer shortage in 1898 was correct. Sometimes disaster truly is up ahead and it’s crucial to change our course. What makes the difference IMO is between saying “this disaster will happen and there’s nothing we can do about it” vs. “this disaster will happen unless we recant and turn backwards” vs. “this disaster might happen so we should take positive steps to make sure it doesn’t.”