#1 has obviously happened. Nordstream 1 was blown up within weeks of my OP, and AFAIK Russian hasn’t substantially expanded its other energy exports. Less sure about #2 and #3, as it’s hard to find post-2022 energy statistics. My sense is that the answers are probably “yes” but I don’t know how to back that up without doing a lot of research.
However coal stocks (BTU, AMR, CEIX, ARCH being the main pure play US coal stocks) haven’t done as well as I had expected (the basket is roughly flat from Aug 2022 to today) for two other reasons: A. There have been two mild winters that greatly reduced winter energy demands and caused thermal coal prices to crash. Most people seem to attribute this to global warming caused by maritime sulfur regulations. B. Chinese real-estate problems caused metallurgical coal prices to also crash in recent months.
My general lesson from this is that long term investing is harder than I thought. Short term trading can still be profitable but can’t match the opportunities available back in 2020-21 when COVID checks drove the markets totally wild. So I’m spending a lot less time investing/trading these days.
#1 has obviously happened. Nordstream 1 was blown up within weeks of my OP, and AFAIK Russian hasn’t substantially expanded its other energy exports. Less sure about #2 and #3, as it’s hard to find post-2022 energy statistics. My sense is that the answers are probably “yes” but I don’t know how to back that up without doing a lot of research.
However coal stocks (BTU, AMR, CEIX, ARCH being the main pure play US coal stocks) haven’t done as well as I had expected (the basket is roughly flat from Aug 2022 to today) for two other reasons: A. There have been two mild winters that greatly reduced winter energy demands and caused thermal coal prices to crash. Most people seem to attribute this to global warming caused by maritime sulfur regulations. B. Chinese real-estate problems caused metallurgical coal prices to also crash in recent months.
My general lesson from this is that long term investing is harder than I thought. Short term trading can still be profitable but can’t match the opportunities available back in 2020-21 when COVID checks drove the markets totally wild. So I’m spending a lot less time investing/trading these days.