The evolutionary heuristic suggests a different explanation for reluctance to use prediction markets: the fact that “listen to arguments and form your own opinion” was the best method we had on the African savannah meant we evolved to use it. Thus, other methods, like prediction markets, feel deeply counter-intuitive, even for people who can appreciate their merits in the abstract.
There’s a good reason why pundits wouldn’t advise you to ignore pundits and just look at the relevant prediction market. Also most people who like to listen to arguments and form their own opinion, greatly value the fact that they can use net neutral balance of argument as support for their position (either for self-satisfaction or to help them proselytize). But then I’ve always thought that was a form of entertainment rather than news/education.
There’s a good reason why pundits wouldn’t advise you to ignore pundits and just look at the relevant prediction market. Also most people who like to listen to arguments and form their own opinion, greatly value the fact that they can use net neutral balance of argument as support for their position (either for self-satisfaction or to help them proselytize). But then I’ve always thought that was a form of entertainment rather than news/education.