In general, when you are asked “What is the probability that the coin came up heads” we interpret this as “how much are you willing to pay for a contract that will be worth 1 dollar if the coin came up heads, and nothing if it came up tails”
Nobody who thinks that the probability is at 75% will buy into the prediction market when the prediction market is at 75%.
A better way to phrase it would be to say: “If you are forced to buy a share in the prediction market, the probability of the event is that probability where you don’t care which side of the bet you take.”
Nobody who thinks that the probability is at 75% will buy into the prediction market when the prediction market is at 75%.
A better way to phrase it would be to say: “If you are forced to buy a share in the prediction market, the probability of the event is that probability where you don’t care which side of the bet you take.”
Sure, this is true, thanks for noticing. Sorry about the inaccurate/incorrect wording. It does however not affect the main idea.