Hmm, that seems to depend on what assumptions you make. Suppose it takes N years to develop proto-AI to the point where it can find a sleep-mimicking drug, and after that it would take M more years to develop general AI, and M * 1.5 more years to develop friendly general AI. If M is much higher than how long it takes for the FAI researchers to start using the drug (which I imagine could be a few months), then the FAI researchers might be enhanced for most of the M-year period before competitors make AGI.
I think you’re assuming M is really low. My intuition is that many of these enhancements wouldn’t require much more than a well-funded team and years of work with today’s technology (but fewer years with proto-AI), and that N is much smaller than M. But this depends a lot on the details of the enhancement problems and on the current state of biotechnology and bioinformatics, and I don’t know very much. Are there people associated with MIRI and such who work on human bioenhancement?
The human enhancement part of this would need to move really really really fast to beat the AGI power scaling and proliferation timelines.
Hmm, that seems to depend on what assumptions you make. Suppose it takes N years to develop proto-AI to the point where it can find a sleep-mimicking drug, and after that it would take M more years to develop general AI, and M * 1.5 more years to develop friendly general AI. If M is much higher than how long it takes for the FAI researchers to start using the drug (which I imagine could be a few months), then the FAI researchers might be enhanced for most of the M-year period before competitors make AGI.
I think you’re assuming M is really low. My intuition is that many of these enhancements wouldn’t require much more than a well-funded team and years of work with today’s technology (but fewer years with proto-AI), and that N is much smaller than M. But this depends a lot on the details of the enhancement problems and on the current state of biotechnology and bioinformatics, and I don’t know very much. Are there people associated with MIRI and such who work on human bioenhancement?