It’s not meant to be convincing, since it doesn’t make any argument. It’s a version of the question.
You can obviously make models of the future, using whatever hypotheses you like. Those models then should be weighted by complexity of hypotheses and credence that they will accurately reflect the future based partly on retrodiction of the past, and the results will modify the very broad distribution that you get by taking nothing but birth rank. If you use a SSA evidence model, then this broad distribution looks something like P(T > kN) ~ 1/k.
If you take all the credible future models appropriately weighted and get a relatively low credence of doomsday before another N people come into existence, then the median of the posterior distribution of total people will be greater than that of the doomsday prior distribution.
It’s not meant to be convincing, since it doesn’t make any argument. It’s a version of the question.
You can obviously make models of the future, using whatever hypotheses you like. Those models then should be weighted by complexity of hypotheses and credence that they will accurately reflect the future based partly on retrodiction of the past, and the results will modify the very broad distribution that you get by taking nothing but birth rank. If you use a SSA evidence model, then this broad distribution looks something like P(T > kN) ~ 1/k.
If you take all the credible future models appropriately weighted and get a relatively low credence of doomsday before another N people come into existence, then the median of the posterior distribution of total people will be greater than that of the doomsday prior distribution.