I’ve just noticed that Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres has ran into one decision theory issue.
After going to Azkaban (in chapter 65), professor Quirrell suggested Harry to run a play with fake Voldemort to gain power in Britain. Harry was not sure whether the real Voldemort was alive and wanted to know that first. He thought at that problem and decided that in both cases the optimal way was not to run the play, and on that basis he concluded that he should not fight with impostor Dark Lord.
However, two propositions “it is optimal not to fight impostor Dark Lord if real one is alive” and “it is optimal not to fight impostor Dark Lord if real one is dead” are insufficient to reach that conclusion; that requires a hidden assumption “real Voldemort being alive does not depend on Harry’s choice”. (In that regard, the problem is similar to Newcomb’s paradox.) And actually, Tom Riddle’s decision to become Voldemort again could have depended on Harry’s choice pretty heavily.
It is hard to notice that problem, though Harry could have done that; in Azkaban, he understood that events happening around do depend on his decision process.
I’ve just noticed that Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres has ran into one decision theory issue.
After going to Azkaban (in chapter 65), professor Quirrell suggested Harry to run a play with fake Voldemort to gain power in Britain. Harry was not sure whether the real Voldemort was alive and wanted to know that first. He thought at that problem and decided that in both cases the optimal way was not to run the play, and on that basis he concluded that he should not fight with impostor Dark Lord.
However, two propositions “it is optimal not to fight impostor Dark Lord if real one is alive” and “it is optimal not to fight impostor Dark Lord if real one is dead” are insufficient to reach that conclusion; that requires a hidden assumption “real Voldemort being alive does not depend on Harry’s choice”. (In that regard, the problem is similar to Newcomb’s paradox.) And actually, Tom Riddle’s decision to become Voldemort again could have depended on Harry’s choice pretty heavily.
It is hard to notice that problem, though Harry could have done that; in Azkaban, he understood that events happening around do depend on his decision process.